I’ve been watching hurricane Florence since it came off the coast of Africa. I’d like to dedicate this post to the survivors of this horrific hurricane. I’ve been using several weather resources to track and gather information on it, plus news coverage, so I’ll do my best to tell you the most pertinent and what will soon be historical facts.
I’ve been using NOAA, Weather Underground, local news, GOES east image viewer, Physics.org, Ventusky, Fox News, Washington Post, The Weather Channel, and several meterologist’s posts here and there from the internet.
NOAA says: We’ve been asked: “how big is
#Florence?” Hard thing to quantify, but here are some numbers… *Area of Tropical Storm force winds currently 300 miles wide *Storm Surge Watches/Warnings stretch along 450 miles of coastline *More than 5″ of rain expected in a 570 mile-long swath
At the coast, Florence could bring 15 to 20 feet of storm surge, enough to eclipse the East Coast record and overwhelm fragile and densely-populated barrier islands.
Hurricane Florence is heading straight for the Carolinas, on course to slam into a region that hasn’t seen anything like it in a generation.
Florence is already one of the worst hurricanes ever to threaten the East Coast, and there’s nearly unanimous consensus among the most reliable weather models that the storm will grow larger and more fierce before it hits land. When it arrives in North Carolina on Thursday, it could be about the same size as North Carolina.
Florence began: off the coast of Africa, September 1st, 2018: http://www.wistv.com/story/39006755/tropical-storm-florence-forms-in-the-atlantic
Right now, Florence is undergoing an eyewall replacement. This is most likely due to the extreme intensity of the storm. Information about eyewall replacement: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYmWFr6z6rY
A feature of significant hurricanes is the eyewall replacement cycle. Basically what occurs is that a new eye begins to develop around the old eye. The new eye gradually decreases in diameter and replaces the old eye. With the profound increase in the number of extreme hurricanes the past few years there has been an opportunity to witness several eyewall replacement cycles.
When an eyewall replacement cycle occurs the intensity of the hurricane usually decreases. For example, a CAT 5 hurricane could weaken to a CAT 4 hurricane. The intensity weakens due to the gradual erosion of the inner eyewall. As the outer eyewall contracts and gains organization then the storm will often increase in intensity. Because of eyewall replacement cycles, a hurricane will typically not remain a CAT 5 for a long period of time.
Although an eyewall replacement cycle tends to reduce the category of a hurricane it also spread the hurricane force winds out over a larger area. This can cause a larger region to experience the extreme damage in a hurricane.
The forecast models have extreme difficulty with predicting an eyewall replacement cycle. Replacement cycles will usually happen with intense hurricanes but it is not known exactly when.
Live webcams from the area: http://surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam/
PLEASE PRAY FOR EVERYONE IN THE PATH OF THIS HIGHLY DESTRUCTIVE KILLER HURRICANE!